As Iran’s clerical leadership struggles to contain protests fuelled by economic hardship and political fatigue, India is watching events unfold with quiet unease. New Delhi and Tehran have been strategic regional partners with deep historical ties, shaped by geography, access, and balance. With Pakistan blocking India’s overland routes to Afghanistan and Central Asia, Iran has long been New Delhi’s only viable western corridor. The Shia leadership in Tehran has also counterbalanced Pakistan’s influence, acting as a stabilising pillar in India’s carefully calibrated West Asia policy.
A weakened or collapsing Iranian state could adversely impact India’s strategic manoeuvring space in the region, already shrinking due to regime change in Bangladesh, terror challenges from Pakistan, China’s regional expansion, and the US policies under Donald Trump, pushing the world into crisis after another. An unstable Iran is likely to reshape diplomatic alignments, trade routes and security calculations that New Delhi has spent decades managing.